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Estimated Time of Arrival

By: Pinchas Winston
Length: 136 pages


Estimated Time of Arrival: Estimating the Final Arrival Time of Moshiach

THE TOPIC OF Moshiach is one of the oldest, and predicting his arrival has been one of the greatest challenges of all history. It’s one thing to discover electricity. It is something altogether greater to figure out when the Messianic Era is set to begin, and dramatically change history—forever. So many have tried and been wrong, sometimes with catastrophic results. How do you even do it? That’s what this book is about, giving it a lot to say about current history as well.


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t’s got to be one of the most sought after arrival dates in the entire history of mankind. So many people have tried to calculate it, from the very learned, to the very unlearned, from the experienced to the inexperienced, and all have come up short, literally. All of their predicted dates for Moshiach’s arrival have come and gone, and the world is still Moshiach-less.

Some at this point might protest: Isn’t it forbidden to make such calculations?

The answer is a flat-out no, which is why, incidentally, so many God-fearing people have done it in the past. Some even hold that today, so close to the end of history (and that was already 200 years ago), it is a mitzvah to do it. You just have to make sure that you do it the kosher way, and that you’re right.

I’m not obsessed with figuring out the ETA of Moshiach, but close to it. But when I ask myself if I really think I can be successful after so many far worthier people have tried and missed, my answer is an resounding no. I just don’t know enough, can’t know enough, to make such a comprehensive and historic revelation. It’s ludicrous to even fantasize about it.

Alternatively, the answer is a yes. But it is with a caveat, that it will already be at a time during which everyone will also be able to figure it out. Including, as the Zohar predicts, school children.

And even if for some very bizarre reason I could be successful for reasons known only to God at making the correct calculation, how would I know I did? And who could I tell? Who would believe me, so in the end, what difference would such information make to the world, and therefore to me?

That’s when I realized that as much as I, like so many others over the ages, would love to know the precise date of Moshiach’s arrival, it’s not the driving force behind all of this. Rather, it truly is the journey in this case that makes it all worthwhile, the many interesting and insightful facts that working on such a project reveals along the way. God may not want anyone to know the arrival of His Moshiach for the moment, but He certainly seems willing to let us work on the many clues we have inherited over the ages.

And I have to tell you, it’s been really exciting. Just assembling the many facts and details, from the obvious to the mystical, into one notebook to figure out how they relate to one another, has been incredibly stimulating. It’s one of the few treasure hunts in life that offers you a treasure the entire hunt.

So why keep it to myself? Why not share the finds with others, and the excitement that goes with it. At the very least, it will give and maintain a Moshiach consciousness that we need badly but sorely lack. At the very least, it will help us rise above the world that seems to be going in the opposite direction, allowing us to keep history in perspective and remain hopeful. And, last but certainly not least, it will provide some really interesting insights into Torah that otherwise might get overlooked.

And who knows? Maybe it will be in the merit of such a journey that will convince God to finally let Moshiach, after millennia of hardship and waiting, to finally reveal himself, and do what he has been destined to do since Creation itself. Maybe that is the Ruach Elohim referred to here:

The earth was null and void, and there was darkness upon the face of the deep, and Ruach Elohim—the Spirit of God—hovered above the water. (Bereishis 1:2)

 

Ruach Elokim has the gematria of zu rucho shel Moshiach. (Ba’al HaTurim; Yalkut Shimoni)

 

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I wrote my first actual End-of-Days’ book in 2000 called Not Just Another Scenario: A Scenario For the End-of-Days. It was a fiction based upon factual information, a storyline scripted based upon authentic sources. It sold out—twice. Boruch Hashem.

I chose that method because, at that time of history, it was still rather taboo to talk about Moshiach in some circles, and in particular, about his potentially imminent arrival. Just saying the word Moshiach used to make the hair stand up on the back of my neck.

But I had been seeing a lot of interesting sources, mainstream sources, that indicated that our approach to Moshiach was mistaken, and our lack of focus on his arrival, dangerous. NJAS was my way of slowly and safely wading into Messianic waters.

Emboldened by the response to my first effort, and dramatic changes in history (Intifada, Part 2, the attack on the World Trade Center, etc.) pushed me to go the next big step and deliver the hard cold facts about the End-of-Days. The result was, Talking About the End of Days: View of Our Times Based on Revealed & Inner Teachings of Torah. That’s where I really spilled the beans, at least the ones that I knew by that time.

That book also sold out, boruch Hashem, but rather than republish it, I moved on to other books, some to do with the End-of-Days, some not. It wasn’t until years later when someone asked me about it that I considered reformatting the original book to publish through Amazon, which I did.

The nice thing about publishing through Amazon is that there is no cost. You just provide them with the camera-ready PDF files and they take it from there. They handle the printing on demand and the shipping. They charge you the cost of the printing and take a pretty reasonable cut, giving you your share monthly with a sales report, which you can check at any time of the week.

Once in a while someone bought the book, which was more than I expected. I just wanted it there so that if someone else asked me about it, I could just provide a link and they could order the book. And that is the way it stayed for a couple of years.

In the meantime, the world was coming undone. Talking about the End-of-Days became less extreme, not that it ever was for some Messianic groups. I had since written several books on the topic, updates and others that took the idea of preparedness even further. They sold, but not that much.

Then around October 2021 I went online to check my sales which I do almost every day. It’s just fun and so exciting to see that people out there buy your books. But on that day, I got a shock when I saw the gray bar indicating paperback sales was sky high compared any other time in the past. The big seller: Talking About the End of Days.

To my utter shock and surprise, the trend continued for a couple of weeks, and I had my best two months ever in my history with Amazon. I did not know who was buying them because Amazon does not share that information with its authors, only the areas of the world in which they sold. And curiously enough, no one was writing me to comment on the book or ask any questions. It was weird.

The book remains to be one of my better selling books, which is still quite interesting. I don’t know who is buying it still, but I can appreciate why. More and more people feel that something very final is approaching, helped along this way with the current pandemic.

My book is probably one of the best-sourced and most comprehensive discussion of the topic. Some books are simply hearsay or supposition. Others are comprehensive, but not overly deep. Some are simply too difficult to relate to. I was aiming for the best of all of them.

Whether or not I succeeded is no longer the issue. The issue today is that history feels like it can be at the end, and people want to know if they should be concerned. They want to understand what is happening, and what to expect. As they say, there are no atheists in a foxhole, and the End-of-Days is guaranteed to make a believer out of everyone left standing.

It’s one thing to miss the bus. It is something different to miss it because you were looking the wrong way.